The National Assembly resolution for the 2013 Budget Plan included the additional reinforcement of the analysis functions on the macro budget and accounts by the National Assembly Budget Office. To meet this demand, the National Assembly Budget Office has issued the ｢2013~2017 NABO Financial Outlook｣, which can be utilized for the macro and comprehensive review of the ｢2014 Budget Plan｣.
   
    This report offers two types of forecast: One is the ｢NABO Financial Outlook｣, based on the changes in laws and regulations that affect income and expenses, such as tax law revisions and the introduction of the Basic Pension Program, and the other is ｢NABO Baseline Outlook｣, which is based on the current laws and regulations.
   
    The report shows the financial effects of the changes in laws and regulations by comparing the ｢NABO Financial Outlook｣ and the ｢NABO Baseline Outlook｣. Also, it showed the discrepancy between government forecasts by comparing the ｢NABO Financial Outlook｣ with the ｢2014 Budget Plan｣ and the ｢2013 ~2017 National Finance Management Plan｣.
   
    The key findings include: First, the real economic growth forecasted by NABO in 2014 was 3.5%, with the CAGR of 3.7% from 2014 to 2017, which is lower than the estimates made by the Korean government (3.9% in 2014, CAGR 4.0%). Second, using the ｢NABO Financial Outlook｣, which is the estimate that reflects the changes in laws and regulations, the total income that incorporates the ｢2013 Tax Law Revision Plan｣ was forecasted to increase by CAGR 5.2% from KRW 351.0 trillion in 2013 to KRW 430.4 trillion in 2017. The forecast for total expenditure, including the changes in the welfare sector, increased by CAGR 4.3% from KRW 339.2 trillion in 2013 to KRW 401.8 trillion in 2017. Third, looking at the results of the ｢NABO Baseline Outlook｣, which makes estimations under the assumption that current laws and regulations will be maintained, the total income is expected to increase by CAGR 5.5% from KRW 351.0 trillion in 2013 to KRW 434.2 trillion in 2017, and the total expenditure to increase by CAGR 4.5% from KRW 339.2 trillion in 2013 to KRW 404.4 trillion in 2017.
   
    The National Assembly Budget Office expects that the ｢NABO Financial Outlook｣ will be used actively in future reviews of the National Assembly Budget Plans for checking the direction of financial management and its sustainability and as an effective tool for determining the appropriateness of the budget for a single year.