National Health Insurance Fiscal Projections 2023~2032

Published on Oct., 10, 2023
Published by Social Cost Estimates Division

   The 「National Health Insurance Fiscal Projections 2023~2032」 predicts the fiscal outlook of National Health Insurance over the next decade, considering recent changes in medical use and policy. It outlines fiscal projections under various scenarios, including removing the premium rate cap and increasing the national grant ratio, along with the associated insurance premium rates needed to meet each fiscal objective.
   The report forecasts that maintaining the current level of insurance premium rate increases will turn the fiscal balance into a deficit in 2024, with the depletion of cumulative reserves by 2028. Furthermore, a fiscal forecast was undertaken, incorporating potential policy changes associated with the calculation of the national grant, presently under discussion in the National Assembly. In this forecast, allocating 20% of the expected insurance premium income, in accordance with the statutory rate of grant for National Health Insurance (14% for general accounting, 6% for funds), has the potential to delay the transition to a fiscal deficit by 1-2 years. This is contingent on the inclusion of the fund proviso, and it may also result in a potential delay in cumulative reserve depletion by 2 years or the possible avoidance of depletion within the forecast period.
   To meet fiscal objectives, the premium rate necessary to sustain fiscal balance or secure one month's worth of health care benefits as cumulative reserves was 8.93% and 9.29%, respectively, as of 2023. In essence, this indicates a forecasted need for a higher premium rate compared to the baseline estimate of 8.00%.