A reliable power supply is one of the basic elements of economic activity and has a great impact on the national economy as well as its industries. Hence, every two years, the Korean government establishes the Basic Plan on Electricity Supply and Demand and determines the scale of power generation facilities and power generation sources. The Basic Plan on Electricity Supply and Demand, which determines the scale of power generation facilities, is important because it shows the direction of the country’s mid-/long-term power policy. Given the difficulties of changing power policies after power facilities are decided, having a pre-review of the Basic Plan on Electricity Supply and Demand before it is fixed would be helpful in raising the acceptance of power policies.
In this article, we conducted a pre-evaluation of the Basic Plan on Electricity Supply and Demand to support the pre-review meeting of the National Assembly. The power supply reliability evaluation showed that the power supply would be reliable even after considering delays in the construction of power generation facilities and power transmission systems and the termination of old nuclear facilities by 2027. However, as the demand for power is expected to decrease, the usage rate of some peak-load generators may drop and the reserve rate of power facilities may increase. Therefore, one should consider the volatility of the power demand based on the changes in the economic situation and industrial structure in forecasting power demand. Moreover, an evaluation of the appropriateness of the power generation mix showed an excessively high proportion of base-load units, indicating the need for caution in introducing new base-load units. Furthermore, it is necessary to reflect social costs in calculating the power generation cost by power generation source and to reinvigorate the distributed power generation sources in the long-term.
For a reliable, efficient, and environmentally friendly energy supply, the Korean government needs to present a power policy direction that will allow for preparation against diverse uncertainties, and energy consumers also need to prepare for the social costs required for power production.
Hur Gahyeong
In this article, we conducted a pre-evaluation of the Basic Plan on Electricity Supply and Demand to support the pre-review meeting of the National Assembly. The power supply reliability evaluation showed that the power supply would be reliable even after considering delays in the construction of power generation facilities and power transmission systems and the termination of old nuclear facilities by 2027. However, as the demand for power is expected to decrease, the usage rate of some peak-load generators may drop and the reserve rate of power facilities may increase. Therefore, one should consider the volatility of the power demand based on the changes in the economic situation and industrial structure in forecasting power demand. Moreover, an evaluation of the appropriateness of the power generation mix showed an excessively high proportion of base-load units, indicating the need for caution in introducing new base-load units. Furthermore, it is necessary to reflect social costs in calculating the power generation cost by power generation source and to reinvigorate the distributed power generation sources in the long-term.
For a reliable, efficient, and environmentally friendly energy supply, the Korean government needs to present a power policy direction that will allow for preparation against diverse uncertainties, and energy consumers also need to prepare for the social costs required for power production.
Hur Gahyeong