NABO Economic Trends & Issues (No. 44)

  • 2016-07-04
  • 330
NABO Economic Trends & Issues(Issue No. 44)
Published June, 2016

I. Economic Trends
Declining exports and sluggish production activity have dampened the average uptime rate of the manufacturing sector to its lowest since March 2009, when the global financial crisis dealt the hardest blow to the sector. If corporate restructuring begins in earnest, the job environment of the manufacturing sector, as well as for those with low employability, will worsen further. At the same time, job creation in the manufacturing sector will be slowed while the downward trajectory of self-employed and daily laborers is likely to continue to get steeper.

II. Overview and Discussion Highlights of the FY2015 Account Settlement 
For the FY2015 Account Settlement Analysis, NABO plans to review tax revenue collection, analyze budget execution, examine program performance, and assess the efficiency of program execution. NABO will suggest recommendations for policy improvement through reviewing the execution, appropriation, and adequacy of the budget, as well as the reserve fund, regulatory compliance, and settlements.

III. Reasons for the Recent Upward Trend in Tax Revenue and Its 2016 Outlook
Tax revenue from January through April this year has turned for the better, backed by the delayed tax collection from the growing number of real estate transactions and corporate income of 2015 and decreases in the refunds for value-added tax and customs duty. Tax revenue in 2016 is projected to grow beyond the 3.3% budget increase, but there still exists a downward risk, including a negative ripple effect from possible business restructuring.

Ⅳ. Limitation of GDP Statistics and Improvement Opportunity
As GDP has recently been used for various purposes, there has been criticism that GDP cannot serve as a standard for some of these purposes. Some have also recently pointed out that supplemental indices for GDP should be developed to reflect factors that have a significant impact on the welfare of the Korean people.

V. Recent Discussion Trend Regarding Basic Income
The Basic Income initiative is designed to provide a universal income to every citizen to help cover basic living expenses, and the cases of Switzerland and Finland and related discussions are introduced.

Ⅵ. US CBO Estimates and Future Tasks
CBO’s official cost estimates of proposed and enacted legislation are used to calculate the influence of each bill on individual standing committees or national finance as a whole. In the future, discussions on expanding the scope of CBO estimates and the promotion of their utilization during bill deliberation are required.

Ⅶ. Issues of Housing Market Normalization Measures and Recommendations
Housing market normalization measures have been implemented to revitalize the property market, but the slumping region was confined to Seoul and the metropolitan area in the early 2010s. Since fluctuations in housing prices might have nothing to do with social welfare changes, the government needs to reconcile the policies to stabilize housing prices with the policies to improve the housing conditions of the public.