NABO Economic Trends & Issues (Issue No. 48)
October 31, 2016
Economic Policy Analysis Division of the Economic Analysis Office
I. Economic Trends
The national economy has recently shown signs of weakness across the economic indicators of exports, production and employment, and uncertainties over the economic recovery are piling up with strikes, restructuring and enforcement of the Improper Solicitation and Grant Act.
II. Features and Implications of the Recent Domestic Consumption Trend
As the global financial crisis has blunted exports, domestic consumption has driven economic growth. During the first half of 2016, property investment boosted domestic demand while private consumption and facility investment stagnated. The recent hype around housing prices has not translated into higher private consumption, mainly due to the heavy burden shouldered by households to pay off the principal on their debt. Business restructuring and enforcement of the Improper Solicitation and Grant Act can serve as causes for bottlenecks in domestic consumption.
III. Current Status and Implications of Monetary Policy in Major Economies and Global Liquidity
Continued accommodative monetary policy in major economies has injected ample liquidity into the global economy and prolonged the period of low interest rates. Nonetheless, these policies have not been a strong tool to substantially stimulate economic recovery in these countries, and concerns are rising over the negative impact of quantitative easing. Korea’s low-interest policy seems to have spawned the negative consequences of climbing household debt and less room for monetary policy.
Ⅳ. Issues in the Credit System of the National Pension Service and Recommendations for Improvement
The Credit System of the National Pension Service is designed to grant additional coverage for periods of childbirth, military service or unemployment. As the low levels and the ex-post structure of government subsidies for various credits under the system can shift a significant burden onto current and future generations of pensioners, the scheme needs to be revamped into an ex-ante scheme to reserve the estimated funds for prospective payment with a higher ratio of government subsidies.
Ⅴ. Policies to Promote Stable Income for Farmers and Trends in Enactment
The government has introduced several policies such as direct payment, control of supply and demand, and measures for stable incomes for farmers, but their incomes have remained stagnant. The 20th National Assembly has reviewed bills to improve on the direct payment and the public stockpiling of rice to counter deteriorating farm management conditions. In the coming sessions, deliberation on bills needs to consider the subsidies subject to reduction pursuant to the WTO Agriculture Agreement and the related fiscal burdens.