NABO Economic Trends & Issues (No. 49)

  • 2016-11-30
  • 311
NABO Economic Trends & Issues (Issue No. 49)
November 30, 2016
Economic Policy Analysis Division of the Economic Analysis Office

I. Economic Trends
  Recently, there has been growing concern about a decline of the Korean economy as exports continue to struggle amid signs of a deterioration of investment in construction and consumption trends, which have been leading the recovery of domestic demand.

Ⅱ. Impact of the New Administration of the United States on the Korean and International Economy
  The expansionary fiscal policy of the new administration of the US is expected to boost the country’s economic growth rate in the near term. In the mid-to-longer term, however, it will likely have negative ripple effects on the American and global economy, partly due to stronger protectionism. Response measures need to be developed in advance since the increasing uncertainty may take a negative toll on the real economy, bringing about financial instability or hitting exports.

Ⅲ. Analysis of Credit Card Usage since the Implementation of the Improper Solicitation and Graft Act
  After the Improper Solicitation and Graft Act (the Kim Young-ran Act) entered into effect, the total number and volume of credit card transactions in Korea in October increased, disproving previous concerns about the risk of a contraction in consumption. However, industries that are directly affected by the new law such as the floral, agricultural and livestock industries were found to exhibit weakened performance in terms of credit card transaction approvals. In order to fulfill the purpose of this legislation, it is necessary to reduce uncertainties and mitigate any potential near-term negative impacts.

Ⅳ. Issues about the bill for fiscal soundness introduced by the government
  The government introduced a bill for the fiscal soundness which consists of measures to reinforce fiscal soundness by establishing a Fiscal Strategy Committee, devising a plan for achieving fiscal soundness, developing fiscal rules and regulations and introducing a pay-as-you-go rule through which any submission of a bill requiring fiscal expenditure must be offset by an increase in revenue or a decrease in spending. Taking into consideration Korea’s fiscal and economic conditions, a more rigorous set of fiscal rules and regulations need to be designed along with pragmatic implementation measures and a review on how they relate to the National Finance Act. There needs to be a prudent approach toward introducing the pay-as-you-go rule.

Ⅴ. Housing Market Trends and Stabilization Measures
  The higher number of new households compared to the supply of new apartments, the lack of a response to address the increased living standards of smaller households and the low rate of self-occupied properties are identified as the major issues of the Korean housing market. In order to stabilize the housing market, increasing housing supply elasticity to allow more flexibility in the market and scaling up the volume of self-occupied properties may prove to be more effective than putting in place additional financial regulations.

Ⅵ. Disaster and Safety Management Policies and Trends of Relevant Legislation
  In response to the recent increase in natural and social disasters as well as accidents, the 20th National Assembly has introduced 327 legislation bills as of November this year, to strengthen safety-related regulations and scale up support, including in terms of budget and compensation initiatives. The Assembly needs to come up with criteria for covering and providing compensation for damage caused by natural disasters, set government subsidy rates, secure an appropriate budget and focus more on strengthening preventive measures instead of relying on ex-post responses.