NABO Economic Trends & Issues (No. 3)

  • 2009-12-11
  • 361
NABO Economic Trends & Issue (Issue No.3)

Since the first quarter of 2009, Korean economy has continued to enter into a full-blown recovery phase from the recession caused by the global financial crisis. As unchanged from september, the index of coincident macroeconomic indicators (net of trend), a measure of current economic conditions, stood at 96.9 in October. The index kept rising the preceding seven straight months, from March to September. Meanwhile, the index of leading macroeconomic indicators, a gauge of future economic conditions, rose 1.1 percentage points from September, increased for the 10th straight month. Industrial production, fixed investment, and employment in October, however, showed a slow-down due to the influence of Choosuk. But exports in November increased by the year-on-year growth of 18.8%. The real GDP growth in the third quarter of 2009 posted the year-on-year growth of 0.9%(2.9% increase relative to previous quarter). On consumption side, sales of consumer goods rose 2.9% from the previous month, rise in a second straight month for both durable and non-durable goods. They also increased 9.8% from a year ago, continuing its upward trend for six months, led by vehicle fuels, food/beverage, passenger cars and home electronics. Facilities investment dropped 5.8% from its previous month, but rose 0.3% compared to point a year ago, as both investments in machinery and transportation equipment increased. Domestic machinery orders (excluding shipbuilding orders), a leading indicator for facilities investment, reached over 3% year-on-year, as private sector orders may offset sluggish public sector. Completed construction slide into 4.3% month-on-month, and dropped 6.5% year-on-year. Construction orders surged to 27.2% year-on-year.