NABO Economic Trends & Issues (No. 28)

  • 2014-04-30
  • 973
NABO Economic Trends & Issue (Issue No.28)

1. Impact of changes in the national account system and baseline year
The Bank of Korea changed the baseline year of national accounts from 2005 to 2010 and introduced a new international standard (2008 SNA). As national accounts were restated based on the new international standard (2008 SNA) and baseline year (2005→2010), the size of the economy, the economic growth rate, and national income were all adjusted upward.

2. Household debt status by income class and its implications
While the Korean economic growth rate is slowing down, household debt is continuously increasing. The household debt vulnerability has traditionally been an issue of the low income classes (the bottom 0~20% and 20~40%), but has recently spread to the middle class (60~80%).  Continuous monitoring of household debt by income class is required as there are risks that debt of not only the bottom 0~20% and 20~40% but also 60~80% can become insolvent as domestic interest rates fluctuate with changes in internal and external economic conditions including QE tapering and the slowdown of China’s economic growth, etc. 

3. 2013 fiscal year's national settlement of accounts and the status of public sector accounts
The 2013 fiscal year's national settlement of accounts shows that total income is 351.9 trillion won, total spending 337.7 trillion won, and the balance of consolidated public sector finance to be positive at 14.2 trillion won (10% of GDP). The government debt stood at 482.6 trillion won and increased 12.0% per year during 2000~2012. The total income of the public sector in 2007~2012 increased by 6.9% per year from 477.4 trillion won in 2007 to 666.0 trillion won in 2012, and total spending increased by 7.9% per year from 460.1 trillion won in 2007 to 671.9 trillion won in 2012.
 
4. Major issues regarding OECD members' fiscal risks
Survey results found that 18 OECD member countries perceived fiscal risks that are highly likely to occur in specific areas to be risks in     the financial sector, the aging population, and the exhaustion of pension funds. General risks were believed to be errors in economic and fiscal forecasting and an increase in oil prices, etc. The 18 OECD members have shown increasing interest in structural fiscal balance which is free from the impact of the economic situation as economies have fluctuated more severely recently. Many OECD members' congress budget offices and independent fiscal institutions are reviewing the impact on national finance through cost estimation, and Holland and Australia in particular are separately preparing cost estimations of electoral pledges. 

5. Progress in the special taxation evaluation system and challenges
Special taxation refers to tax benefits given by the government for specific activities. The system can be utilized as a policy tool, but there are also side-effects including the loss of tax income, inequality of the tax burden, and market distortion, etc. As the need to refine the system has been continuously raised because of the poor management of special taxation and repeated sunset extensions, the government introduced the special taxation evaluation system for performance evaluation and pre-/post-management. For the successful establishment and development of the special taxation evaluation system, a solid foundation for performance evaluation should be laid, the accuracy of special taxation information should be raised, information should be shared among relevant government agencies, and specialized research institutions and evaluation results should be actively utilized in evaluations by the National Assembly.