Following its first publication in 2013 of the “NABO Fiscal Outlook 2013-2017,” the National Assembly Budget Office published the second “NABO Fiscal Outlook 2014-2018" this year, to help the National Assembly effectively analyze the budget and accounts on a macro-level.
This report provides forecasts of the fiscal impact of changes in laws and regulations for the review of the “FY 2015 Budget Bills” and evaluation of the “2014-2018 National Fiscal Management Plan.”
This report provides two types of forecasts: one is the “NABO Fiscal Outlook,” which addresses changes in laws and regulations that affect revenues and outlays, and the other is the “NABO Baseline Outlook,” which incorporates the assumption that current laws and regulations remain unchanged.
The report also shows the fiscal effects of changes in laws and regulations by comparing the “NABO Fiscal Outlook” and the “NABO Baseline Outlook” and presents differences in forecasting between NABO and the government by comparing the “NABO Fiscal Outlook” with the “2015 Budget Proposal” and the “2014–2018 National Fiscal Management Plan.”
Two key findings are highlighted in this report. First, the real economic growth forecasted by NABO for 2015 is 3.8 percent, with an average annual growth rate (AAGR) of 3.7 percent from 2015 to 2018, which is lower than the estimates by the Korean government (4.0 percent for 2015, AAGR 4.0 percent).
Second, according to the “NABO Fiscal Outlook,” revenues that reflect the “2014 Tax Law Revision Bill” are forecasted to increase at an AAGR of 5.3 percent from 356.8 trillion won in 2014 to 437.9 trillion won in 2018. Outlays which reflect policy changes, namely for welfare, are expected to rise at an AAGR of 5.0 percent from 344.1 trillion won in 2014 to 418.6 trillion won in 2018.
Third, in the “NABO Baseline Outlook,” which assumes that current laws and regulations will remain unchanged, revenues are expected to increase at an AAGR of 5.1 percent from 356.8 trillion won in 2014 to 434.7 trillion won in 2018, and outlays to rise at an AAGR of 4.0 percent from 344.1 trillion won in 2014 to 403.3 trillion won in 2018.
We hope that this report will serve as an effective tool to evaluate the direction of future fiscal management as well as its sustainability and make an assessment of one-year budget. (-> 한글 원문기준 번역내용)
We hope that this report will provide a pivotal momentum for strengthening our grips on fiscal outlook. Furthermore, we are also convinced that this report will facilitate the review procedures on budget proposal augmented with the pragmatic policy instruments.
This report provides forecasts of the fiscal impact of changes in laws and regulations for the review of the “FY 2015 Budget Bills” and evaluation of the “2014-2018 National Fiscal Management Plan.”
This report provides two types of forecasts: one is the “NABO Fiscal Outlook,” which addresses changes in laws and regulations that affect revenues and outlays, and the other is the “NABO Baseline Outlook,” which incorporates the assumption that current laws and regulations remain unchanged.
The report also shows the fiscal effects of changes in laws and regulations by comparing the “NABO Fiscal Outlook” and the “NABO Baseline Outlook” and presents differences in forecasting between NABO and the government by comparing the “NABO Fiscal Outlook” with the “2015 Budget Proposal” and the “2014–2018 National Fiscal Management Plan.”
Two key findings are highlighted in this report. First, the real economic growth forecasted by NABO for 2015 is 3.8 percent, with an average annual growth rate (AAGR) of 3.7 percent from 2015 to 2018, which is lower than the estimates by the Korean government (4.0 percent for 2015, AAGR 4.0 percent).
Second, according to the “NABO Fiscal Outlook,” revenues that reflect the “2014 Tax Law Revision Bill” are forecasted to increase at an AAGR of 5.3 percent from 356.8 trillion won in 2014 to 437.9 trillion won in 2018. Outlays which reflect policy changes, namely for welfare, are expected to rise at an AAGR of 5.0 percent from 344.1 trillion won in 2014 to 418.6 trillion won in 2018.
Third, in the “NABO Baseline Outlook,” which assumes that current laws and regulations will remain unchanged, revenues are expected to increase at an AAGR of 5.1 percent from 356.8 trillion won in 2014 to 434.7 trillion won in 2018, and outlays to rise at an AAGR of 4.0 percent from 344.1 trillion won in 2014 to 403.3 trillion won in 2018.
We hope that this report will serve as an effective tool to evaluate the direction of future fiscal management as well as its sustainability and make an assessment of one-year budget. (-> 한글 원문기준 번역내용)
We hope that this report will provide a pivotal momentum for strengthening our grips on fiscal outlook. Furthermore, we are also convinced that this report will facilitate the review procedures on budget proposal augmented with the pragmatic policy instruments.