Evaluation of the Carbon Neutral Energy Transition Policy

Published on Nov., 13, 2024
Published by Economic Industrial Program Evaluation Division, Budget Analysis Department

   Since the 2015 Paris Agreement, global efforts have focused on achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 to address the climate crisis. Korea has joined this initiative, establishing the “First National Framework Plan for Carbon Neutrality” to meet the 2030 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC).
   To enable the government to meet its NDC by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, advancing the energy transition, which represents half of the national greenhouse gas reduction strategy, is essential. In particular, there is a need to actively adapt to shifts in energy policy, moving from a focus on nuclear phase-out and renewable energy expansion to incorporating nuclear power generation and adjusting renewable energy targets.
    This report evaluates the feasibility of energy transition policies in achieving the 2030 NDC, and examines the rationality and soundness of greenhouse gas reduction plans through nuclear and renewable energy, resulting in several key implications.
   First, the government should address the complex assumptions (such as the timing and scale of co-generation adoption, and projected co-generation volume), that influence the calculation method for the 2030 NDC outlook in the energy transition sector. Additionally, it should establish a comprehensive, top-level energy policy to replace the outdated “Basic Energy Plan”.
   Second, achieving the 2030 power generation target will require close consideration of various factors associated with nuclear power. This includes the timely construction of new plants, extending the operation of plants at the end of their design life, maintaining above-average operating rates, and securing high-level radioactive waste disposal facilities (especially with regard to the timing when temporary storage facilities may reach capacity).
   Third, despite obstacles (location restrictions, power grid instability, and inefficiencies in the Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) system) to expanding renewable energy, such as the slowdown in solar power deployment, it is important to review the renewable energy penetration scenario. This review should comprehensively take into account variables affecting the 2030 NDC achievement outlook, insights from climate change impact assessments, and international trends.