NABO Mid-Term Economic Outlook 2009-2013

  • 2009-10-30
  • 355

 As the government submitted the Nation’s Fiscal Management Plan 2009-2013 to the National Assembly based on the National Fiscal Act enacted in 2006, in-depth analyses on the soundness of nation’s finance, tax revenue and government’s expenditure, and the effective budget allocation over the mid-term are essential for effective evaluation on the Nation’s Fiscal Management Plan 2009-2013. For this purpose, National Assembly Budget Office not only provides ‘NABO Mid-Term Economic Outlook 2009-2013’ but also updates the report annually according to the government's annual submission since 2007.

NABO's mid-term economic projection for 2009-2013 can be summarized as follows: the average annual real GDP growth rate of the Korean economy from 2010 to 2013, the 4-year-period after the global financial crisis, is expected to record 4.1%, which is 0.6% point lower than that rate from 2004 to 2007, the 4-year-period before the global financial crisis. To be more specific, the Korean economy is projected to grow at the annual rate of 3.8% in 2010 and 3.9% in 2011. Then it will be picking up to 4.2% and 4.5% in 2010 and 2011, respectively.

The aftermath of the global crisis will be exported-oriented economy to unfavorable trade environment in global economy, so that Korea economic growth is expected to be slow down, meanwhile the domestic demand’s contribution to economic growth will be continuously weak due to no alleviation of the excessive debt of household and sluggish job creation, which is likely to depress household spending further.