NABO Preliminary Forecast of Domestic Population 2020-2040

Published on 29 March 2021
Published by Population & Strategy Analysis Division

   Korea’s total fertility rate in 2020 was 0.84 babies (tentative), recording fewer than 1.0 babies for the third consecutive year. 272,000 babies were born, the first time fewer than 300,000 births were recorded. Should the current “lowest–low fertility” and aging trends continue, Korea’s socio-economic future as well as its fiscal and economic policy direction may be significantly affected. Against this backdrop, this report highlights a population estimation model developed by incorporating the recent trends on the nation’s lowest-low birth and death rates, and made produced an experimental estimation of the Korean population within the next 20 years.
   According to the basic model (Scenario 1) in which the total fertility rate was estimated to fall from 0.87 births in 2020 to 0.73 in 2040, the population of Korean nationals is expected to decrease from 50.02 million in 2020 to 47.17 million in 2040. Such a decline would also affect the nation’s demographics, with the majority population shifting from those aged between 40 and 69 in 2020 to those aged between 60 and 89 in 2040, creating a constrictive population pyramid. The rate of working age population would correspondingly decrease from 71.6% in 2020 to 56.8% in 2040, while the rate of the aged population (65+ years old) would at least double from 15.9% in 2020 to 36.9% in 2040.
   A population forecast was also conducted by simulating a scenario based on birth rate projections. Estimations were conducted under the assumption that the currently declining trend in the total fertility rate would continue and reach 0.53 births in 2040 (Scenario 2); the current trend of 0.87 births as of 2020 would be maintained until 2040 (Scenario 3); and lastly, that the total fertility rate would continue to decline until 2025 before making a rebound in 2026 to reach 1.7 births by 2040 (Scenario 4). As a result, the population in 2040 was estimated to be between 47.17 million and 49.01 million, declining from the current level of 50.02 million as of 2020. It appears that the population decline cannot be avoided even if the fertility rate rebounds and continues to increase to 1.7 births, but the degree of the decline may be alleviated.
   According to existing studies, the current lowest-low fertility rate in Korea is affected by demographic, socio-economic as well as cultural and value factors. In order to tackle such phenomena moving forward, the government needs to identify the relevant challenges faced by the generation of the main childbearing age and come up with measures tailored to enhance their propensity to have children.
   This report bears significance in that an experimental estimation has been made with Korean nationals as the reference population. Moving forward, by upgrading this model by incorporating the economic and socio-economic factors that affect childbirth and death, it may become the basis for developing a highly utilitarian population estimation model.